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原创第篇
封面图片:珠海大剧院
今天主要从三个方面给大家聊聊地产与经济,分别为:经济内循环、如何扩大内需、以及7月份城市二手房价排名。
Part1、经济内循环
最近大家经常听到一个词语叫做什么?“经济内循环”。但是很多人都不明白到底是什么意思,还有一些歪曲的解释,比如说是计划经济,完全是在颠倒是非。
在中央经济文件中,着力于强调要“经济内循环为主,国际国内双循环的模式”。为什么要加快转变呢?
拉动经济的三驾马车,出口、投资、消费;其中以出口经济为主的外贸型经济因为受到新冠疫情的影响,外加美国一些西方国家咄咄逼人的外贸威胁,复杂的国际环境下,不得不思考后退之路,也就是说要做好的预期和最坏的结果。
中美关系已经走向自年以来历史的最糟糕阶段,仍然面临更多的不确定性。
但是,中国是全世界最大的消费市场,有着14亿人口,通过年改革开放,中国经济取得令世界瞩目的成绩,来之不易。
我们不会关起门来搞发展,这与闭关锁国,完全的自给自足的计划经济完全不同,现在是中国想扩大开放,但是美国觉得自己吃亏,想要改变这一贸易平衡,美国并非是要禁止贸易,而是想要得到更低的关税,换句话说,得到更大的毛衣好处。如果很多人不理解这个原因,所有的推论是错误的。
我再做一个假设,如果中美双方都零关税壁垒,完全自由贸易,特朗普非乐的睡不着觉,但是中国不能做到,因为我们还不具备这个条件,无法直接与其竞争,会对中国国内产业造成极大的冲击。
然而,不破你立,很多事情是妥协的结果。
Part2、如何扩大内需
我们都知道内循环,需要靠国内市场拉动,把出口转化为内销,但是内销的前提是什么?老百姓兜里要有钱。
过去二十年,中国老百姓的财富,我们来讲都被绑架在房子上面,为什么这么说呢?相关机构调查显示,中国居民家庭财富80%以上都在房地产上。我觉得这个数据并不夸张,你可以看看自己身边的同龄人,年轻人,购房者,他们是不是一大部分家庭开支都在房地产上。
但是,要扩大内需,就要引导居民理性消费,还要多渠道消费,如果单单依靠房地产致富,那么,实体企业生产出来的产品,谁来购买,如何升级转化,谁来买单。
所以,最简单的逻辑是:上层想让房地产发展的缓慢一些,居民的负债低一些,消费的渠道,消费的层次多元化一些,这样既有利于出口转内销,也有利于企业进行产业升级,支持实体经济的发展。
我们看到近两年,严格限制银行资金流入房地产领域,已经表明了这个态度。同时另一方面,你所担心的或者希望的房地产崩盘、泡沫破裂更是无稽之谈,因为已经在去泡沫化的过程中。
比如,北京自年到年的现在,三年多房价还是基本平稳。
Part3、7月全国城市二手房价
序号城市名称平均单价(元/㎡)环比同比1深圳74,-0.81%+19.4%2北京62,+0.63%-2.17%3上海56,+3.39%+6.05%4厦门46,-2.03%+3.71%5广州37,+5.37%+9.84%6三亚37,-1.12%+12.19%7南京32,+2.37%+4.22%8杭州30,-1.88%+0.38%9福州26,-0.14%-0.99%10天津25,-1.81%-3.57%11宁波23,+0.93%+15.76%12珠海23,-0.72%-0.68%13苏州22,-1.8%-1.07%14温州22,+1.67%+3.59%15青岛21,-1.37%-0.23%16丽水18,-2.54%+6.19%17东莞18,+5.19%+19.4%18武汉18,-1.1%+3.39%19金华17,-0.33%+3.29%20无锡17,+2.64%+13.38%21成都16,-0.3%+8.08%22合肥16,+0.38%+3.86%23常州16,+0.42%+7.31%24大连16,-0.91%+1.49%25济南16,-1.04%-6.37%26南通15,+0.24%+13.74%27舟山15,+0.44%-2.14%28西安15,-1.89%+0.82%29海口15,-0.64%-2.14%30衢州14,-0.85%+4.7%31石家庄14,-0.83%-1.43%32台州14,-1.01%+0.18%33郑州14,-0.18%+1.33%34廊坊14,+0.13%-6.46%35嘉兴14,+4.66%+9.27%36扬州14,-1.36%+2.39%37昆明14,+0.44%+9.41%38大理13,+2.74%+6.75%39佛山13,-0.88%+3.78%40绍兴13,+2.16%+13.86%41唐山13,+1.85%+19.47%42莆田13,+0.27%+6.56%43兰州13,+1.11%+5.9%44泉州13,-0.52%+9.22%45南宁12,+2.57%+8.11%46南昌12,-0.88%+0.36%47漳州12,+0.21%-2.08%48重庆12,-1.76%-2.4%49芜湖12,+0.29%+3.39%50呼和浩特12,+0.42%+4.44%51宁德12,+1.17%+17.88%52沈阳11,-0.88%+9.57%53中山11,+1.45%-1.59%54湖州11,+0.14%+0.45%55拉萨11,-0.07%+4.2%56太原11,%-4.64%57泰州11,+1.67%+6.13%58徐州11,+0.24%+8.68%59龙岩11,-0.52%+6.12%60哈尔滨11,+1.15%+3.23%61秦皇岛11,-0.23%+6.2%62长沙11,-0.1%+3.18%63惠州11,+3.12%+8.19%64沧州10,+2.63%+4.64%65连云港10,+0.28%+16.01%66汕头10,-0.4%+2%67盐城10,-1.19%+2.97%68湛江10,+3.35%+6.67%69承德10,+0.17%+6.41%70长春10,-2.01%+1.43%71洛阳10,-2.69%+2.6%72西宁10,-1.7%+14.63%73邯郸9,+0.62%+6.83%74泰安9,+3.33%+7%75镇江9,-1.37%+1.32%76三明9,+1.17%+4.31%77保定9,-0.18%-1.83%78日照9,-3.97%-4.54%79淮安9,+2.98%+16.73%80临沂9,+0.35%+6.72%81赤峰9,-1.51%+2.88%82儋州9,+1.17%+12.49%83柳州9,+1.84%+5.41%84襄阳9,-1.03%+7.92%85凉山9,-1.95%+4.43%86烟台9,-5.04%-4.42%87贵阳9,+0.37%-5.65%88天水9,-1.55%+11.08%89黄山9,-0.31%+0.49%90威海9,-2%-0.94%91宿迁9,+3.68%+18.84%92聊城8,+5.08%+5.36%93保山8,+1.41%-5.26%94淄博8,-0.02%+2.51%95江门8,-2.44%+0.47%96池州8,+0.99%+8.04%97长治8,-0.44%+14.24%98乌鲁木齐8,-0.16%+1.06%99丽江8,+3.13%+3.09%晋城8,+1.04%+10.81%铜陵8,+2.66%+0.9%玉溪8,+2.14%+10.4%九江8,-0.97%+8.08%赣州8,-1.72%-0.97%安庆8,-1.37%-0.56%南平8,-1.23%+4.57%德州8,-0.59%+0.15%蚌埠8,-0.03%+8.85%宜昌8,-1.56%-3.74%张家口8,-3%-8.09%咸阳8,+2.8%+5.34%枣庄8,-2.88%+8.5%西双版纳8,+0.95%-10.4%马鞍山8,-0.59%+7.28%林芝7,-0.11%-6.73%济宁7,+1.55%+5.51%南阳7,+3.39%+2.76%宣城7,+0.98%+4.86%包头7,-1.14%+1.07%上饶7,-1.02%+0.32%濮阳7,+0.68%+11.98%庆阳7,-2%+1.35%阜阳7,-6.33%-5.02%吉安7,+1.28%+1.14%东营7,+0.94%+1.1%普洱7,-2.5%+0.09%滨州7,-3.29%-5.69%鄂尔多斯7,+0.4%+20.06%淮北7,-0.82%+6.87%绵阳7,-1.42%-1.8%潍坊7,-0.49%+1.4%榆林7,-0.05%+18.48%德宏7,+2.02%+13.26%南充7,+1.49%+4%吉林7,+0.17%+7.65%衡水7,-0.8%-5.96%陇南7,-0.61%+3.63%宜春7,+1.3%+3.92%汕尾7,-0.19%-0.96%丹东7,+5.77%+14.26%晋中7,-0.27%+8.11%临沧7,+0.59%+5.87%桂林7,+3.06%+1.64%滁州7,-0.35%+5.61%邢台7,-0.73%-3.04%抚州7,+2.5%+2.75%新乡7,+1.69%+6.62%茂名7,-3.87%-3.98%六安7,-0.99%+3.03%梅州7,+3.38%+1.94%清远7,-3.84%-4.22%宿州6,-0.43%+3.96%揭阳6,+6.57%-4.28%肇庆6,+3.39%-4.96%银川6,-0.38%+11.65%河源6,+0.6%+1.93%鄂州6,-2.52%-0.26%岳阳6,+0.73%-3.48%景德镇6,-1.35%+6.59%眉山6,+0.22%-1.08%平凉6,-0.66%+1.53%信阳6,+2.24%+7.68%常德6,-0.42%+5.79%鹰潭6,+3.63%+13.23%张家界6,-0.12%-1.86%达州6,-2.31%-5.07%开封6,-4.65%-3.96%十堰6,+5.01%+12.86%亳州6,+1.58%+2.53%宜宾6,-1.55%+5.29%大同6,-2.3%+8.44%新余6,-0.03%+13.23%遂宁6,-0.38%+0.43%攀枝花6,+3.3%+13.88%北海6,-2.43%-7.62%武威6,+0.85%+3.74%淮南6,-0.2%+0.33%许昌6,+2.72%+3.24%株洲6,+0.87%-2.08%韶关6,+4.25%+8.66%荆州6,-1.72%-0.51%泸州6,+0.5%-4.81%鹤壁6,+0.21%+0.75%贵港6,-1.93%-2.69%黄冈6,+2.97%+13.84%德阳6,+2.11%+4.53%广元6,-7.19%-0.35%楚雄6,+2.67%+12.63%红河6,-1.09%+14.15%内江6,-2.32%-1.18%巴彦淖尔6,+0.14%+7.87%永州6,+0.06%+0.47%阳江6,+0.67%-4.24%安阳6,-1.93%+1.25%潮州6,-5.44%-17.04%菏泽6,-0.17%+0.5%临汾6,-1.74%+8.18%遵义5,+1.58%-8.77%广安5,+2.19%+2.32%迪庆5,+2%+22.37%自贡5,+0.49%-1.65%曲靖5,-1.36%+16.35%商丘5,-3.15%+2.86%黄石5,+0.7%-1.3%资阳5,+0.89%-2.18%延安5,-2.25%+6.26%昭通5,-2.68%+3.96%昌吉5,-0.49%+1.82%漯河5,+0.39%+5.49%定西5,+0.27%+4.71%驻马店5,-1.52%+5.49%雅安5,-1.96%-5.43%娄底5,+1.98%+7.93%运城5,+2.71%+10.44%伊犁5,+1.46%+9.33%恩施5,-5.98%+1.2%益阳5,-3.85%-0.35%文山5,+1.39%+13.14%郴州5,-0.99%-4.06%防城港5,-4.65%-11.24%平顶山5,-0.17%+5.92%海东5,-0.92%+11.59%贺州5,-4.07%-2.52%乐山5,+1.74%+3.17%临夏5,+0.82%+22.57%牡丹江5,-0.12%+1.09%怀化5,+1.51%-1.52%锦州5,+11.36%+12.71%安康5,-0.81%+1.42%焦作5,-0.98%+1.47%萍乡5,+1.1%+8.33%孝感5,+3.82%-6.21%忻州5,+3.5%+6.98%湘潭5,-1.48%-1.75%白银5,-2.56%-2.31%喀什5,+1.61%+12.85%葫芦岛5,-1%+1.95%汉中5,-1.14%+6.81%商洛5,+3.41%+13.65%延边5,+2.19%+3.92%黔东南5,+0.51%+3.54%云浮5,+0.56%+0.41%玉林5,-1.27%-2.7%周口5,+1.07%+3.76%渭南5,+0.06%+10.44%通化5,-0.59%-0.96%衡阳5,+2.6%-2.91%抚顺5,+3.69%+8.89%梧州5,+0.7%+1.99%吕梁5,+1.51%+15.27%铜仁5,+0.48%+3.5%大庆5,+0.17%-3.68%齐齐哈尔5,+3.15%-0.61%宝鸡5,+1.59%-0.76%湘西5,-1.15%+2.9%随州5,-2.87%-5.53%兴安5,+0.35%-2.54%本溪5,+3.16%+4.65%通辽5,-0.99%-11.6%营口5,+0.45%-0.03%酒泉5,+1.99%+2.37%邵阳4,-2.16%+1.89%巴中4,-2.79%-1.82%四平4,+1.06%+3.41%锡林郭勒4,+0.3%+5.79%六盘水4,-0.17%-0.58%乌海4,-4.64%+5.31%安顺4,-1.86%-5.23%呼伦贝尔4,+2.23%+7.5%固原4,-1.95%+6.16%荆门4,-0.01%-2.03%吴忠4,+0.78%+17.76%崇左4,-0.99%+1.54%鞍山4,-0.95%+0.31%克拉玛依4,+0.39%+6.54%毕节4,+1.87%+4.81%咸宁4,-0.15%+0.38%白城4,+4.04%+2.49%钦州4,-3.44%+0.22%三门峡4,+0.9%+3.36%乌兰察布4,-1.25%-1.3%绥化4,+7.21%+15.48%辽阳4,-1.06%-1.91%阳泉4,+4.69%+7.84%来宾4,+2.35%+4.78%黔南4,+0.91%-7.31%朝阳4,-0.31%+3.45%盘锦4,+1.53%+6.55%河池4,-5.83%-3.85%巴州4,+1.23%+17.52%白山4,+2.78%+17.02%黑河4,+2%+17.09%金昌4,+12.48%+27.34%松原4,+1.93%-1.11%百色4,-2.92%-9.41%辽源4,+4.32%+3.63%嘉峪关4,+1.59%+6.1%黔西南4,-1.85%-0.38%阿克苏4,+0.41%+6.84%铜川4,-2.79%+4.91%伊春4,-2.24%+6.22%中卫3,-0.92%+0.45%哈密3,-1.7%+7.44%铁岭3,+2.33%+0.64%鸡西3,+0.59%+3.97%阜新3,-1.25%+0.05%佳木斯3,-5.16%-0.44%博州3,-0.7%+0.95%海西3,+4.78%-5.31%朔州3,-0.76%+2.92%张掖3,+1.85%-3.96%七台河3,-11.18%-9.68%石嘴山2,-1.39%+3.05%双鸭山2,-2.72%-0.6%鹤岗2,+3.66%+10.01%需要注意的是二线城市东莞,房价涨幅较大,与深圳加紧房产调控,导致投资需求的转移有一定关系;其次,河北的三线城市唐山房价涨幅凶猛,应该说与之前房价太低有直接关系,毕竟唐山的GDP在河北一直处于第一的位置。
坚持是一种信仰,专注是一种态度。
原创不易,如文章引起共鸣,文章底部分享一下,谢谢!王公子的地产专栏
1、可以问我房产投资问题不限次数,看到后会及时回复,观点明确。
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